Once again I place real money on the stupidest possible Super Bowl bets. Here are the ones I picked this year.
I’ve already seen a lot of lists popping up around featuring crazy prop bets for the upcoming Super Bowl. But for the third year in a row, I’m going to do something none of the cowards are willing to do… and actually put money on these bets.
A lot of gambling websites have been shut down — thanks, Big Government! — but there are still enough out there that these bets can be made. The only issue was a delay due to figuring out how to get $33 to one of the books so I could make three of these bets. It actually would’ve been faster to just fly the cash to Antigua and deliver it by hand.
So, following in my Super Bowl prop betting tradition for 2010 and 2011, here are 11 of the weirdest bets available for Super Bowl 46 between the New York Giants and New England Patriots… all of which I actually made. (I picked bets in 2009 but didn’t make them.)
Which prop bets did I dig up? Was it $121 well spent? Will I actually be able to withdraw my winnings? All of these questions may or may not be answered soon…
1 | Who will Barack Obama pick to win the game?
New England Patriots – 5/6
New York Giants – 5/6
He was asked a few days ago and said he “couldn’t call it.” I’m assuming he meant “yet” and he’ll make a pick closer to game time. And I predict it will be New England. He’s got New York locked down without pandering; he needs to side with Massachusetts to stay competitive with Romney. It’s why I also see him picking the Red Sox to win the World Series and BYU to win in March Madness.
I bet $11 on Obama picking New England, to win $9.17. Gotta love those horrific payouts on prop bets, right?
2 | Will Kelly Clarkson forgot or omit at least one word of the national anthem?
Yes – 5/2
This is a direct response to Christina Aguilera botching a word in last year’s Super Bowl Star-Spangled Banner (and also possibly Steven Tyler botching the lyrics as well a few weeks ago). Kelly’s cut from a different cloth than those two, though — and I don’t see her messing up the words. But “no” isn’t being offered for betting purposes, so I have to go with “yes.” Again, prop bets really aren’t a path to wealth.
I chose this bet over “Will Kelly Clarkson’s belly show during the National Anthem” — which was actually offered by one sportsbook. And in that case, “yes” was the only action, you couldn’t bet “no.” I avoided that because it’s so mean-spirited.
I bet $11 that she will mess up a word, with a chance to win $27.50.
3 | How long will it take Kelly Clarkson to sing the National Anthem?
Over one minute, 34 seconds – 5/6
Under one minute, 34 seconds – 5/6
The past three years I bet the over every time. Jennifer Hudson hooked me up by going over 2:01… Carrie Underwood screwed me by going under 1:42… and Christina Aguilera went a fraction of a second under 1:54 in a photo finish. So I’m 1-2 on picking the over… but I’m going that way again. I refuse to let small sample sizes interfere with my beliefs.
I just don’t think Kelly Clarkson can resist belting out a gigantic final note that lasts close to 94 seconds on its own. Prove me right, Kelly. Some people wait a lifetime for a betting opportunity like this.
I bet $11 on the over with a chance to win $9.17.
4 | Will [the NBC broadcasters] Al Michaels or Chris Collinsworth say “Tebow” during the 1st quarter?
“Tebow” said during 1st quarter – 5/6
“Tebow” not said during 1st quarter – 5/6
Tim Tebow has been the story of the NFL season. The Patriots knocked him and whatever team he plays for — that’s clearly not important — out of the playoffs a few weeks ago. Will the broadcasters figure out a way to wedge his name into the first quarter?
The funnier bet is yes; and if this were a bet on whether they’d say his name at some point during the game, I’d probably go that way. But I just don’t see it happening in the first quarter when they are deeply focused on the game and not the swirling miscellany. So I bet $11 on NO, with a chance to win $9.17.
5 | What will be the first touchdown celebration?
Spike the ball – 2/3
Lay on the ground – 15/1
Dunk the ball over the goalpost – 5/1
Any kind of dance – 2/1
Kiss a cherleader – 90/1
Kiss a teammate – 35/1
“Tebow” – 10/1
Once again I’m so tempted to go with the Tebowing option. But there’s no reason to mock Tebow during the Super Bowl — he’s long gone and vanquished. That would be like Tim Cook getting up at a press conference and making fun of the Commodore 64. Possibly by noting that it’s not fabulous.
I’m going to go with the “any kind of dance” option. I like those 2/1 odds. I’m hoping someone does the Bernie. (Which I jokingly did at a bar on Friday night and had a concerned bouncer come up and ask me if I was OK. I think he thought I was having a seizure. Which means I was totally doing it RIGHT.)
I bet $11 on any kind of dance, with a chance to win $22.
6 | What will Madonna be using to start the Super Bowl halftime show?
Headset – 1/3
Handheld microphone – 2/1
I know Madonna made the headset microphone famous… but that was a different Madonna. A younger Madonna. She wants to prove she’s still relevant and not just living in the past — which means she should forego the headset mic (and the cone bra, the fake mole and the simulated sex with Vanilla Ice).
I am betting she’s going to start with a handheld microphone; hoping she opens with a slower song. Perhaps the song from With Honors? I bet $11 she brings out the handheld mic, with a chance to win $22.
7 | Who will be shown on camera first, Archie or Peyton Manning?
Archie is shown first – 6/5
Peyton is shown first – 20/31
So are we going to see Eli’s father or brother first? Odds are, they’ll be shown at the same time, which is why there’s a twist — if they’re shown on camera first, this bet becomes “which one is identified by name first.” The odds are against Archie but I prefer him here. He’s less recognizable, he’s the dad… and he’s not the one who’s going to have a semi-bitter look on his face from watching his less-talented younger brother stand on the precipice of doubling his number of Super Bowl wins.
So I bet $11 on Archie, with a chance to win $13.20. Hopefully that bet doesn’t make me a jughead. HI-YO. Meh. Moving on.
8 | How many times will Giselle Bundchen be shown on TV during the game?
Over 1/2 – 2/3
Under 1/2 – 10/11
She’s a model and she’s married to Tom Brady. Let’s take a look at precedent. In 2009, Kurt Warner’s wife was shown repeatedly. The next year, Kim Kardashian (who was dating Reggie Bush), was never shown. Last year, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger’s not-so-famous girlfriends were never show.
But I just have a gut feeling here that NBC is going to want to show her. Get a little sexiness back on that network because Smash ain’t gonna get the job done. So I bet $11 on the over with a chance to win $7.33.
9 | How many times will David Tyree’s 2008 Super Bowl catch be shown be shown on TV during the game?
Over 1 – 2/3
Under 1 – 11/10
This Super Bowl is a rematch from four years ago, so the gut reaction is “of course they’ll show replays of the most famous play from that first game.” But as I think about it, I just don’t see the context. Maybe if the game is tight and the Giants are driving late. Maybe if the Patriots are winning big and the network brings up the “ooh, they’re getting revenge” angle. Maybe if David Tyree shows up as a hot dog vendor in the stands. But otherwise… I think it would interrupt the game flow.
So I bet $11 on the under with the chance to win $12.10.
10 | What commercial will have the highest rating on USA Today’s Ad Meter?
Audi – 17/2
Bridgestone – 11/1
Bud Light – 3/1
Budweiser – 3/1
Century 21 – 16/1
Dannon – 13/1
Doritos – 6/1
GM – 11/1
GoDaddy.com – 11/1
Hyundai – 15/2
Kia – 19/2
M&M’s – 9/2
Pepsi – 13/2
Teleflora – 17/2
Coca-Cola – 13/2
Toyota – 11/1
Volkswagen – 17/2
This is so much more complicated in previous years because so many of the ads have already appeared online. Plus Honda’s not even on this list, and their Ferris Bueller commercial seems to be leading in pregame buzz.
There was one on here that had all the elements I was looking for: History on its side, pregame buzz without giving it all away and odds that pay well. And that’s Volkswagen. They leaked a teaser showing dogs barking to the Star Wars Imperial March. Last year their Darth Vader ad won the Ad Meter… people love dogs… this commercial has a little pre-hype… and those 17/2 odds are so seductive.
I bet $11 on Volkswagen to win $93.50. This one could really pay for my entire day.
11 | How many average viewers will the Super Bowl receive?
Over 117 million – 5/7
Under 117 million – 1/1
Here are the audiences for the past four years: 2008, 97.4 million; 2009, 98.7 million; 2010, 106.4 million; 2011, 111 million. I know better than to ever bet against the NFL’s popularity — I’m pretty sure, at this point, the M*A*S*H finale is the only thing that could keep a regular season, week 13 Jaguars-Chiefs game from getting a record-setting rating. But I just don’t think this year it makes the leap over 117 million. That’s way too many people in an era where no one’s really in the habit of watching “appointment” television.
I bet $11 on the under with a chance to win $11.
If I win all 11 bets, I stand to make $236.14. Cashing out just might be difficult.