For the 10th year in a row, I bet more than $100 on Super Bowl prop bets, this year featuring the Puppy Bowl, Dilly Dilly, Nipplegate and Tom Brady’s jersey.
Whew. It’s been a long time since I wrote on my website. But you know how it is: Stuff came up, life and work got busy, I was finishing a huge project, society is crumbling, was the world really missing one of the five billion websites making #content?
That.
Being.
Said.
I needed a good kick to get going on blogging again, and my annual Super Bowl betting list was just the thing. I wasn’t going to break a tradition and skip this — it’s my TENTH year in a row. I’m one year away from my milestone 11th anniversary. Come on.
For those uninitiated, every year the online sportsbooks offer weird and ridiculous Super Bowl bets. Lots and lots of other websites write about them, but I always take it a step further — and bet real money on them at a variety of sketchy online casinos. I spend $11 per bet, as per this website’s gimmick, for a total of $121.
My previous results…
2009 – I went 6-3-2, but wasn’t betting for real.
2010 – I went 4-7, lost $14.41
2011 – I went 4-6-1, lost $13.58
2012 – I went 5-4-2, won $4.77
2013 – I went 6-5, won $19.56
2014 – I went 4-7, lost $30.80
2015 – I went 6-5, won $7.75
2016 – I went 3-7-1, lost $29.60.
2017 – I went 6-4-1, won $2.64.
That gives me an overall record of 44-48-7 and my lifetime losses are $53.67.
I had a winning year last year, although not a financially lucrative one. Still, I’m close to being back to .500 on my bets. It would be great to get there before my 11th anniversary next year, but… um… there are some real brutal ones out there this year. And I’ll always pick a funny and ridiculous bet over an easy winner.
Here are the 11 weirdest prop bets being offered for Super Bowl 52, all of which I actually made…
1 | Who will win Puppy Bowl XIV?
Team Fluff -145 (20/29)
Team Ruff +105 (21/20)
After 14 years, the Puppy Bowl is finally big enough to warrant gambling! How legitimizing for them. I found one sportsbook offering a bet on the game and, of course, I had to take that action. It’s awfully hard to make a prediction, since the teams seem evenly matched (they’re both filled with dogs), so I bet the under — ahem — dog to try to win some money.
I bet $11 on Team Ruff with a potential win of $11.55.
2 | How long will it take Pink to sing the National Anthem?
Over 120 seconds -145 (20/29)
Under 120 seconds +105 (21/20)
Now this is a strange one. For the past nine years, I’ve always scouted the singer by watching YouTube videos of their past National Anthem performances. But Pink, oddly enough, doesn’t have any. Has she really never performed the anthem before? Not even at a minor league baseball game in her hometown as she was growing up and everyone was like, “I tell you, that Alicia is going places”?
Apparently so. And I’m not alone in my confusion. The sportsbooks couldn’t scout either, so they all just seemingly defaulted to setting a generic “eh, probably around two minutes” over-under. I’ve always had great luck betting the over, and I’m not going to deviate here — especially without better information to work off — so that’s what I’m sticking with here. And the shortest anthem time/best odds combo I could find was over 120 seconds, -145.
I bet $11 on over two minutes with a potential win of $7.59.
3 | Will Pink say “Eagles” before, during or after she sings the National Anthem?
Yes +150 (3/2)
No -200 (1/2)
Pink, it turns out, hails from Doylestown, Pennsylvania, less than 30 miles north of Philadelphia. “I tell you, that Alicia, she’s going places.” She’s an Eagles fan, as we can gauge from her tweet after the NFC championship, which read, “Ummm. I’m singing the national anthem and the EAGLES ARE PLAYING?!?!?! IS THIS FOR REAL?!?!?!THATS WHASSUP!!!!!!!! Shtjtkd widnamc ckamcnsnzncbx!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wooohooooooooooooioooooooooooooooooooooooooiiiiiiooooooooooo”
So this bet, really, comes down to her professionalism. Will she break with the tone of the event and mention her team after the anthem — a “Go Eagles!” or something of the sort? Will she preface her performance with, “I’m so nervous about the Eagles?” Will she change the lyrics from “the bombs bursting in air” to “the balls deflated, no air”? I’m going to say no on all of those and trust that any of her punk rawk instincts were flushed out somewhere circa I’m Coming Up So You Better Get This Party Started.
I bet $11 on NO with a potential win of $5.50.
4 | How many times will the word “Dilly” be said during the broadcast (including commercials)?
Over 12.5 -130 (10/13)
Under 12.5 +100 (1/1)
Apparently people are SO convinced that Bud Light is going all-in on their best catchphrase since “Wazzzzup” that the one sportsbook offering this wager, BetDSI, had to eventually take it off the board because of too much action on the over. Fortunately, I got my bet in before they did.
I bet $11 on over 12.5 dillies with a potential win of $8.46.
5 | How many times will Trump tweet during the game?
Over 2.5 +120 (6/5)
Under 2.5 -150 (2/3)
Last year I bet on Trump tweeting throughout the game. He didn’t. And now, with a lot more experience in watching how his tweeting seems to work, it makes sense. The game isn’t being covered live by Fox and Friends. It will get more attention than anything he tweets. Justin Timberlake won’t mention him during halftime; he’s got a new album to sell, it’s not time for politics. Both quarterbacks are white. The combination of those factors makes it highly unlikely that he’ll publicly defecate on himself tweet multiple times during the three- to four-hour span of the Super Bowl.
I bet $11 on under 2.5 tweets with a potential win of $7.33.
6 | Will Donovan McNabb’s vomiting incident from Super Bowl 39 be mentioned during the broadcast?
Yes +170 (17/10)
No -250 (2/5)
This year’s Super Bowl is a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX, in 2005. The Patriots narrowly beat the Eagles, 24-21. And legend has it that the Eagles’ horrible fourth quarter was due in large part to quarterback Donovan McNabb vomiting on the field — either from exhaustion or nerves. So… will it come up?
The “yes” is tempting, because the Patriots always play close Super Bowls so it’s conceivable this year’s Eagles will find themselves in a high-pressure fourth quarter situation — and the announcers will mention the past demons they’ll need to exorcise. But realistically, I don’t see it. The vomiting is more of an urban legend than fact, so while Super Bowl 39 may come up in the announcing, the McNabb vomiting incident probably won’t.
I bet $11 on no with a potential win of $4.40.
7 | What will Justin Timberlake perform as his first song during halftime?
Can’t Stop the Feeling +140 (7/5)
SexyBack +200 (2/1)
Filthy +245 (49/20)
Rock Your Body +415 (83/20)
Mirrors +800 (8/1)
Cry Me a River +1000 (10/1)
True Colors +1000 (10/1)
What Goes Around +1000 (10/1)
Senorita +1400 (14/1)
Suit and Draw [sic] +1400 (14/1)
Take Back the Night +1400 (14/1)
Like I Love You +2500 (25/1)
I’m Lovin’ It +3300 (33/1)
4 Minutes +3400 (34/1)
LoveStoned/I Think She Knows +3400 (34/1)
That’s a lot of choices. So let’s handle it SAT-style and start whittling it down.
Suit and Draw is the first gone, because that’s not a song; Justin Timberlake’s song is called Suit and Tie, the sportsbook messed up. So that’s guaranteed not to be it. I’m also going to knock off True Colors — he wouldn’t open with a slow cover. Can’t Stop the Feeling is a better option from Trolls, but feels more like a closer than an opener. And I’ll knock off Rock Your Body, since the last time he performed that at a Super Bowl it caused the firestorm of all halftime firestorms.
Filthy is out because, even though I think he *will* perform songs from his new album, I don’t think he’ll open with one. I’m Lovin’ It is gone because, come on, he’s not going with a McDonald’s jingle, the NFL would never allow that unless they got paid. Take Back the Night isn’t a good opener on the title alone; in 2018, you don’t open the Super Bowl halftime show with a title co-opted from a serious women’s movement.
Of the remaining contenders, I was almost tempted to go with 4 Minutes as a long shot, but that’s really more of a Madonna song. So I’m going to go with Mirrors. It’s not TOO old like some of the others. It has a good rhythm to start his show. And, most importantly, I could really see them wheeling out a bunch of mirrors to do some expensive choreography.
I bet $11 on Mirrors with a potential win of $88. Basically my entire 10-year gambling odyssey rides on this bet.
8 | Will any member of NSYNC appear to perform with Justin?
Yes +200 (2/1)
No -280 (5/14)
I can’t believe they were offering -280 on “no.” Basically every member of NSYNC — including Justin — has said they won’t be involved. I’m going to take them all at their word on this one. Help a brother out, Chris Kirkpatrick, and stay home.
I bet $11 on NO with a potential win of $3.93.
9 | How many total Anheuser-Busch commercials will air during the game?
Over 4.5 -165 (20/33)
Under 4.5 +130 (13/10)
I guess this kind of ties in with my “Dilly, Dilly” bet. We’re guaranteed at least three A-B commercials: A Bud Light one during the first commercial break (probably incorporating “Dilly, Dilly”), an emotionally manipulative Clydesdale one for Bud Heavy, and another Bud Light humor ad (probably, again, incorporating “Dilly, Dilly”). So do they have two more in them beyond that? I’m going to say absolutely yes. The Super Bowl is Anheuser-Busch’s Super Bowl.
I bet $11 on over 4.5 with a potential win of $6.67.
10 | Will “Nipplegate” be said during the broadcast?
Yes +500 (5/1)
No -900 (1/9)
Easiest bet of the game. The commentators might mention Justin Timberlake’s previous Super Bowl performance. They might mention Janet Jackson. Hell, she might make a cameo in the performance. But there’s no way the NFL is allowing the word “Nipplegate” during the broadcast. They just allowed players to start celebrating touchdowns again. It’s going to be decades before they mention nipples.
I bet $11 on NO with a potential win of $1.22.
11 | Will Tom Brady’s jersey be stolen again?
Yes +1000 (10/1)
No (not offered)
The sportsbooks do this every year. They offer some ridiculous bet and won’t let you bet “no.” And I always get suckered into it, because it’s my goal to find the most ridiculous prop bets. And I always lose. Always.
This year’s “can’t win” bet is on Tom Brady’s jersey disappearing after the game, like it did last year. It won’t happen. It can’t happen. There’s probably a team of security guards on duty to make sure it doesn’t happen. So, basically, I just lit $11 on fire. And the odds aren’t even that great! At least give me +5000 for taking this action.
I bet $11 on yes with a potential win of $110.
—
So, if I win all 11 bets, I’ll take down $254.65. If I win the nine “easier” bets and just lose on JT’s first song and Brady’s jersey being stolen, I’ll win $56.65. Now that’s a hell of an ROI on a $121 spend. My financial panther is going to be furious.